Fishing Weather’s Two Questions

Crab Season Camp Northern California

Weather, Water, and Comfort Level

When it comes to fishing in questionable weather, you need to ask yourself two things:

1. Am I comfortable with the forecast?

2. Can the body of water handle the conditions for the fishing style I want to do?

If you can’t answer both confidently, you probably shouldn’t go. Otherwise, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment—or worse.

Example 1: Pyramid Lake – October 1st, 2023

This was opener day, and I was out in my 15-foot Stabicraft. Conditions were ugly: gusting 30+ mph north winds, with some boats even sinking.

I had the experience, knew the risks, and felt safe running in those conditions. My trip was wet but successful, and I caught fish. Still, I wouldn’t repeat it. Why? Because the lake itself couldn’t handle that forecast for my style of fishing. Only a few coves were calm enough to jig, which severely limited success. Lesson learned: even if I feel safe, the water body + forecast has to line up with the way I want to fish.

Example 2: Bodega Bay – Dungeness Opener, November 2–3, 2024

This opener was tragically one of the deadliest on record, with multiple boats lost and lives taken. I fished both days safely because I stayed within my comfort zone and picked fishable water.

• November 2nd: I saw a brief calm window with a manageable swell period and light wind, so I ran to my honey hole north of Bodega Head and got my crab.

• November 3rd: Gale warning issued. I stayed tucked in the inner bay, where the lee offered protection, and still limited out.

  
  

Same forecast, different outcome depending on water choice. In this case, my comfort level and local knowledge made it repeatable—because I matched the forecast to water that could handle my target fishing style.

My No-Go Forecasts

Over time I’ve learned the “no-go” winds for my area:

• Mountain/Great Basin lakes: Any east wind—even a light variable east—is a dealbreaker.

• Northern California coast: Any south or southeast wind, no matter how light, is a trip-ender.

  
  

Bottom Line

Know both your personal comfort zone and your water’s limits. If either doesn’t line up with the day’s forecast, don’t go. Doing so helps you avoid wasted trips—and keeps you safe.

To start planning, email me at: dropglamping@gmail.com Tell me your destination, group size, and trip dates, and we’ll design the perfect base camp. I look forward to helping make your next trip the best one yet.

— Cyrus